JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman Warns Tesla Could Fall 60% — Here’s Why
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman says Tesla could fall 60% to $145. Here’s the core bear-vs-bull setup investors are debating now.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is back in the spotlight after JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated a bearish call, warning the stock could drop about 60% to $145 per share from recent levels near $359.
The note follows Tesla’s latest delivery report miss and intensifies the debate around whether Tesla’s valuation reflects near-term fundamentals or long-term autonomy and robotics potential.
Why JPMorgan is cautious
- JPMorgan argues that Tesla’s financial expectations have deteriorated over the past several years.
- Brinkman now expects approximately $0.30 EPS for Q1, far below expectations once held for this period years ago.
- Long-dated consensus estimates have also moved lower, raising concerns about the pace and timing of Tesla’s projected growth path.
What’s pressuring the stock narrative
- Q1 deliveries came in around 358,000 vehicles, below some Wall Street expectations.
- Tesla reportedly produced over 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered, signaling inventory pressure.
- JPMorgan says that dynamic could worsen free-cash-flow pressure as Tesla enters a heavy investment cycle in AI, autonomy, and robotics.
The other side of the trade
Not all analysts agree with JPMorgan’s bearish stance. Some still see the recent pullback as an entry point, betting that robotaxis, software leverage, and energy expansion can drive a multi-year re-rating.
That leaves investors with a familiar Tesla split:
- Bear case: valuation is ahead of fundamentals.
- Bull case: the market is pricing a future platform company, not a traditional automaker.
Bottom line
Brinkman’s $145 target is among the most bearish on the Street and underscores how divided sentiment remains. The key question is whether Tesla can execute its next growth phase fast enough to justify current expectations.
Sources: MarketWatch (via Morningstar syndication) and Yahoo Finance coverage of JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman note, accessed April 6, 2026.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
